How to tell if a suburb is about to boom? MECCA sets up shop

It used to be golden arches. Then it was a Bunnings. But now there’s a new telltale sign your suburb is on the cusp of a boom, and this time it’s far more bougie.

Mecca, Australia’s leading beauty retailer,  was once reserved for major shopping centres and big-city strips. But with the luxe retailer strategically muscling its way into regional hot spots – with Geelong’s Newtown the latest addition – it’s being touted as the newest marker of gentrification.

Architect and property coach Dominic Bagnato, the man behind social channel The Invisible Architect, says the “Mecca effect” is real.

Where Bunnings once heralded growth, he’s arguing the next wave of suburb transformation looks more like the lush land of luxury beauty. And if you see one pop up in your postcode, he says it’s an indicator the suburb is about to boom.

“Sometimes it’s the smallest of indications that this is a place to buy and those indicators used to be retailers like Bunnings,” he says.

“But when you look at Mecca, it’s the go-to store for young kids and girls and my wife. It’s all these satellite businesses under one roof … and when stores like this arrive, it’s like an avalanche – it attracts like-minded businesses.

“It’s out with the old and in with the new.”

$2,750,000 - $2,950,000

24A Stephen Street, Newtown VIC 3220

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For Bagnato, Mecca’s arrival in Newtown is as good as a neon light signalling the suburb’s next chapter. And given Geelong still offers far more bang for buck alongside a swag of bougie new businesses, he’s tipping more Melburnians will migrate south.

“Newtown is Geelong’s version of Toorak. There’s some beautiful cafes there now and I can’t think of anything it’s missing,” he says.

Domain chief of research and economics Dr Nicola Powell says premium retailers like Mecca often appear before major price acceleration – not after.

“You see the demographic change in a suburb in the main street before you see it in house prices and those premium retailers like Mecca are following the data. They are not taking a punt before moving into a suburb,” she says.

“They move in when affluent young buyers do.

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11 Aphrasia Street, Newtown VIC 3220

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“What we know with gentrification is it occurs in waves and spirals out … some of the earlier signs are renovators, as that’s often the first wave of professionals moving in.

“It can also be the arrival of dog parks, weekend markets and then main street shifts that see more boutique cafes, wine bars and beauty brands.”

According to Domain’s latest House Price Report, the median house price in Geelong is $720,000, almost a third cheaper than Melbourne, where the median sits at $1,083,043.

In Newtown. the median is $995,000, while Geelong’s cheapest suburb, Norlane, has a a median of $467,000.

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5 Noble Street, Newtown VIC 3220

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But while the entry level prices in Geelong are comparatively more affordable compared with most capitals, David Cortous of McGrath Geelong and Newtown, says the city had already shifted from a cheap alternative to Melbourne to a lifestyle magnet in its own right.

“It has one of the highest growth rates of any town in Australia and it’s not just about Newtown either,” he says.

“Our entire region is filled with period-style homes and leafy suburbs as well as great schools … and we’re only 15 minutes from Torquay and an hour from Melbourne.

He says employment opportunities are also drawing people to relocate to Geelong.

$1,875,000

12 Frank Street, Newtown VIC 3220

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“We’ve got the NDIS headquarters here and the WorkSafe HQ and even the Cotton On HQ,” Cortous says.

“They are a massive employer alone, and then we’ve got two Deakin University campuses. Geelong has really turned from a blue-collar working-class centre to a white-collar city.

“We are seeing a lot of younger Melbourne families coming in … and while 10 years ago it was because of affordability, now they want to be here because of our lifestyle.”