Slow and steady: Agent predictions for Canberra's spring property market

Canberra’s property market has entered spring with high hopes for the usual flurry of activity. But agents say it is shaping up to be a slow and steady season rather than a sharp spike.

The Domain House Price Report for the June 2025 quarter shows Canberra’s median house price rose 1.1 per cent to $1.07 million – the city’s largest quarterly gain in 15 months.

Median unit prices jumped 4.6 per cent to $610,752, marking their sharpest rise in almost two years.

According to Domain’s chief of research and economics, Dr Nicola Powell, the capital’s housing market is on a gradual recovery path.

“House prices are now 8.8 per cent below the mid-2022 peak – having already recovered roughly a third of the earlier decline – and are on course to continue a slow recovery,” she says.

“Unit prices are now 2.9 per cent below their September 2023 peak, having recovered roughly two-thirds of their earlier decline. Units are now outpacing houses, narrowing the price gap, although a typical house still costs about 75 per cent more than a unit.”

The improvement comes as national housing markets strengthen in response to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate cuts earlier this year. Combined capital city medians have reached record highs, supported by improved borrowing capacity, still-tight listing volumes and resilient population growth.

That momentum could lift further after the RBA’s August decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the cash rate down to 3.6 per cent. The move is expected to add to buyer capacity ahead of the peak selling season.

In Canberra, July market data pointed to rising activity even before the latest cut. Auction clearance rates surged to 63.5 per cent – the city’s highest in two years – with volumes at their strongest since 2022.

New listings jumped 21.1 per cent over the month, led by a 34.6 per cent rise in units, though total supply remained slightly lower than a year ago.

Even so, local agents describe an uneven market. Samantha Linsdell from Hive Property says activity is far from uniform across the market, with some segments moving more briskly than others.

“We are finding that a particular price bracket, between $800,000 and $1.2 million, is transacting quite well,” she says. “But we are still seeing that the top end of the marketplace is quite slow.

“Canberra’s average days on market have blown out significantly in the last month, increasing by approximately 20 days.”

Linsdell’s own figures show her days-on-market average typically sits around 30, but in recent weeks has stretched to 45. Across Canberra, she says, properties are fluctuating anywhere between an average of 70 and 90 days on market.

Putting the change down to a mix of supply dynamics and buyer caution, Linsdell says many are waiting to see the impact of the Reserve Bank’s latest moves.

“Historically, we’d see at least two to three consecutive cuts before there’s a significant change in the marketplace,” she says. “There’s been some positivity around it, but I think people are waiting for [more cuts] before making a financial decision.”

Linsdell also has found clearance rates to be inconsistent, with some weekends performing strongly and others more subdued.

“One week is really positive and the next is not. You really just don’t know where you stand,” she says.

“It’s quite a reactive marketplace, and that’s [unusual] for Canberra … it is definitely a lot more unpredictable at the moment.”

Michael Potter of Michael Potter Real Estate agrees the market remains “fickle”, with some homes generating strong interest, and others attracting little, as buyers take their time.

“Listings have been quite tight. I think last year was probably stronger than this year,” he says.

“Buyers are not rushing. They’re making informed decisions and watching the market. It’s not one straight line but an up-and-down trajectory.”

Potter believes the sub-$900,000 segment is likely to attract the most competition, while the top end will remain subdued. In particular, he says more first-home buyers are likely to enter the market, with the interest rate cut increasing their borrowing capacity.

But rather than a dramatic rebound, Potter expects steady improvement through to the end of the year.

“I get a feeling that things are not going to go boom, but we’ll start seeing more steady growth, with more properties selling through private treaty and clearance rates picking up,” he says.

“I think we’ll have a really good, interesting spring. Is it going to be [frenetic]? I don’t think so. We’d like to think we’ll have a lot of activity in the market with [continued] growth, and getting back to a normal growth market around 3 or 4 per cent per annum.”